Container lines launched a historic ordering wave in 2025 and 2026. The orderbook, the total capacity of ships waiting to be built at shipyards, reached record levels in 2026. The question most asked in the industry now: what will happen to freight rates when these ships are delivered?

The figures

• May 2026: According to Linerlytica, the orderbook reached about 13 million TEU, equal to 38.3% of the existing fleet, a ratio not seen since the global financial crisis.
• July 2026: The orderbook set a new record at 1,712 ships and 13.72 million TEU, exceeding 40% of the fleet.
• Ordering pace: New orders placed in the first four months of 2026 exceeded 1.9 million TEU. At this pace, the 2025 record of 5.1 million TEU is expected to be broken by year-end.
• Shipyards: About eight in ten ships on order are at Chinese yards.

When will they be delivered?

Most of the new capacity will be delivered in 2027 and 2028:

• Alphaliner calculates that a total of 1,000 newbuildings with 8.5 million TEU of capacity will enter the market in 2027 and 2028.
• Linerlytica expects deliveries in 2028 alone to exceed 5.5 million TEU if all yard slots are filled.

Why is there no overcapacity yet?

Jonathan Roach of Braemar describes the market’s current strength as “borrowed”. Ships sailing around the Cape of Good Hope because of the Red Sea crisis tied up a large part of the fleet on long voyages. As the return to Suez accelerates, this capacity will be released. With new deliveries added, the supply side is expected to drive the market.

Possible consequences for cargo owners

• Pressure on rates: If supply grows faster than demand, freight rates may come under downward pressure.
• Contract negotiations: Companies negotiating long-term rates for 2027 can take expected capacity into account.
• Service changes: In periods of overcapacity, lines may use blank sailings and service mergers, affecting transit times and schedules.

Forecasts are not certain, however: the security situation in the Red Sea, the pace of ship recycling and global trade demand may change the picture.

Frequently asked questions

What is an orderbook?
The total of ships ordered from shipyards but not yet delivered, usually expressed as the number of ships and TEU capacity.

Will new ships definitely lower freight rates?
Not definitely. Supply growth may put pressure on rates, but demand, route changes and recycling also determine the outcome.

Sources

• Riviera: Record-smashing box ship orderbook fuels overcapacity concerns
• Global Trade: Container ship orderbook hits record 13 million TEU
• Kuehne+Nagel: Containership orders hit record high despite looming overcapacity fears
• Logistics Management: Top 30 ocean carriers 2026 – walking a capacity tightrope

This article is based on sources published up to 26 October 2026.