The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea route connecting the Persian Gulf to the open sea. Since the US–Iran war began in 2026, the number of ships passing through the strait has been far below pre-crisis levels. In October 2026, attacks on shipping increased markedly.
What happened in October 2026?
- Attacks: UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) recorded 21 attacks on vessels in the region between 1 and 15 October.
- Sinkings: The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride was hit while transiting the strait, caught fire and sank. According to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, all crew were evacuated. The bulk carrier Cape Dao also sank; it had first been hit on 23 September. One Indian crew member lost his life in that incident.
- Disputed cause: Iran said the ships struck mines on an “unauthorised route”. Maritime sources pointed to an unidentified projectile or a drone.
- Iran’s justification: Iran said it was stepping up attacks in response to the US blockade of Iranian ports and sanctions tightened in September.
Transit numbers
| Daily transits | |
|---|---|
| Pre-crisis average (Argus) | 138 |
| First weeks of the war (Argus) | 5 at most |
| 7 October 2026 (Windward) | 18 |
| 14 October 2026 (Windward) | 6 |
| 21 October 2026 (Windward) | 14 |
The figures come from different data providers with different counting methods. But the picture is clear: traffic fluctuates at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels.
The US statement
US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Brad Cooper said on 26 October that the main transit routes in the strait are free of Iranian mines. According to CENTCOM, more than 3,000 ships have transited the strait with US support over the past six months. Iran, by contrast, says the strait is closed. Neither statement can be independently verified.
Insurance and cost
Ships entering a war zone need separate war risk insurance, and the premium is re-priced for each voyage. A World Economic Forum analysis from April 2026 describes how governments have stepped in as “insurers of last resort” as private insurers withdrew from the region. These premiums are passed on to Gulf cargo as a war risk surcharge.
Checklist for shippers to the Gulf
- Service status: Does the line still call directly at Gulf ports, or does it discharge cargo at a transshipment port?
- Surcharges: Is the war risk surcharge included in the quote, or will it be added later?
- Cargo insurance: Does your policy cover war and strikes risks? Confirm in writing with your insurer.
- Delivery term: The Incoterms rule determines where risk passes to the buyer. See Incoterms.
- Time buffer: Allow extra time for possible transshipment and waiting.
Frequently asked questions
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed?
Iran says the strait is closed; the US says the main routes are open and ships are transiting with US support. In practice, transits continue, but at numbers far below pre-crisis levels.
Who pays the war risk surcharge?
Surcharges usually fall on whoever pays the freight. This depends on the delivery term in your sales contract.
Sources
- Euronews: Another tanker catches fire near Hormuz after two cargo ships sunk in attacks (15 October 2026)
- US News / Reuters: Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks
- gCaptain: Containership sinks as Hormuz attacks spiral out of control
- Arab News: US touts role in Gulf oil exports as CENTCOM chief flies over Hormuz Strait
- Windward: Strait of Hormuz insights
- Argus: Traffic through Hormuz remains minimal
- World Economic Forum: What stopping war-risk insurance in the Strait of Hormuz tells us
This article is based on sources published up to 26 October 2026.